The Department of State has released the May 2026 Visa Bulletin. Below is our analysis of the significant movements and how they compare to our predictions.
1. Prediction vs Reality
Where our model diverged from the actual bulletin (threshold: >14 days).
Our model's predictions were largely in line with this month's bulletin, with no major deviations (>14 days).
2. Key Movements
Month-over-month changes for applicants.
Family-Sponsored
No significant movement observed in Family-Sponsored categories.
Employment-Based
- EB-2 ROW advanced by 30 days to 01 May 2026.
Historical Pace (12-month average)
| Category | 12-mo avg (days/mo) | vs Seasonal Avg | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| EB-1 China | 12.0 | -10.0 | Typical |
| EB-1 India | 34.2 | -10.0 | Typical |
| EB-2 China | 27.9 | -26.7 | Slower |
| EB-2 India | 46.7 | +118.3 | Faster |
| EB-2 ROW | 87.0 | +223.7 | Faster |
| EB-3 China | 18.8 | -21.0 | Slower |
| EB-3 India | 17.8 | -11.7 | Typical |
| EB-3 ROW | 43.1 | +92.7 | Faster |
3. Future Outlook
The overall trend is positive, with most tracked series showing forward movement.
EB-1 China Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Dec 2023
Pace: 12.0 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 12 Feb 2024
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Dec 2023
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Dec 2023
EB-1 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Dec 2023
Pace: 34.2 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 0% Gbm → 26 May 2024
- 0% Queue Simulation → 01 Dec 2023
- 0% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Dec 2023
EB-2 China Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jan 2022
Pace: 27.9 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 32.7% Fiscal Year Cycle → 01 Jan 2022
- 18.0% No-Change Baseline → 01 Jan 2022
- 17.7% Supply-Adjusted → 26 Jan 2022
EB-2 India Advancing
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Jan 2015
Pace: 46.7 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 68.6% No-Change Baseline → 15 Jan 2015
- 12.4% Demand Signal → 15 Jan 2015
- 8.8% Fiscal Year Cycle → 15 Jan 2015
EB-2 ROW
Pace: 87.0 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
EB-3 China Stalled
Next predicted cutoff: 01 Jan 2022
Pace: 18.8 d/mo avg (slower than usual)
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 54.9% No-Change Baseline → 01 Jan 2022
- 31.8% Demand Signal → 01 Jan 2022
- 12.1% Supply-Adjusted → 09 Jan 2022
EB-3 India Volatile
Next predicted cutoff: 15 Jan 2015
Pace: 17.8 d/mo avg
Model confidence: Low
Top Factors
- 63.8% No-Change Baseline → 15 Jan 2015
- 27.5% Fiscal Year Cycle → 15 Jan 2015
- 7.0% 12-Month Trend → 09 Mar 2015
EB-3 ROW
Pace: 43.1 d/mo avg (faster than usual)
Expert Model Signals
- EB-1 China is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-1 India is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-2 China shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
- EB-2 India is in an **advancing** pattern with consistent forward movement.
- EB-3 China has been **stalled** with minimal cutoff movement.
- EB-3 India shows **volatile** behavior with unpredictable swings.
Analysis generated from the Bulletin Forecast Model using historical bulletin data, I-140 demand signals, and fiscal year patterns. Model confidence varies by series. Expand "Model Breakdown" on any prediction to see individual expert signals.